EURUSD bounced on the Target Zone 1 yesterday, as plotted by eWH back on the 10th January, when price was rejected by the continuation supply zone, again, plotted by eWH.. That trade, would have netted around 270 pips or more. If you'd missed that, you had a second opportunity to short when price went back to test the BBRN - a good place for a limit sell order, that could have yielded the same return.
Now that TZ1 has been hit, where might price go next? If the bears remain in control, there are two points of interest below the current price, highlighted by using the eWH Fibo Clusters. The first cluster-cluster is pretty close to the Target Zone 2. The second, of particular interest, is right at the bottom of the gap that's been open since April 2017. Might the second anniversary of that gap provide the close?
Time will tell ... :)
Want to know more about the identification of these trade setups? Check out the Free Trader Training Course, for owners of eWH and ATM.
I’ve had a few emails, in recent months, asking if the Advanced Trade Manager (ATM) hides stop losses and take profit levels from the broker. To save me time in replying with the same responses all the time, I am inspired to write a blog posts that I can refer anxious traders to.
The simple answer to the question is: NO.
My question is: why do you feel the need to hide stop and take-profit levels?
If you think your broker manipulates price to stop you out of trades, or prevent you from reaching your take-profit level, you seriously need to find a broker you can trust: one that is registered with a well-respected financial regulator, such as the FCA (in the UK) , CFTC or NFA (in the USA).
Reputable brokers make their profits on spread or commission charges; they shouldn’t be making money from your losing trades. If you think otherwise, then you seriously need to withdraw your money – if they’ll let you. A good broker will be happy that you’re a successful trader – the more you succeed, the more profit they will make through your continued trading. You’re no good to them if you lose all your trading funds. A dodgy broker will be happy to clear your trading account, hoping that you’ll continue funding through over-stretched credit cards – like the many binary-trade brokers (regulated by dodgy gambling bodies – which should tell you all you need to know) that are now, mostly and thankfully, in the dustbins of history.
What are ‘hidden stop losses’ anyway? They don’t really exist but an EA can initiate a buy/sell order, to close your trade at the equivalent of your stop-level. That’s risky … what happens if your platform/computer shuts down when you have an open trade? A non-hidden stop loss is an instruction that’s already with your broker; therefore, there is zero risk to your trading account from your computer failing you.
Some people say they can prove that their broker has manipulated price to stop them out. I ask for some chart examples, so I can compare the price bars with my own charts but, to-date, have never received such ‘proof’. It’s simple enough to check price bars from one broker against other brokers. If your broker appears to have spiked a price, where others haven’t, then you need to lodge a complaint with that broker. Repeated occurrences of price-spiking justifies a formal complaint to their regulatory body, if they have one; at the very least, you should change brokers in a hurry. Widening of spreads might also account for some inexplicable stop-outs, for which comparing price bars won’t help much. Again, if that’s something that happens too often, at your stop levels, then send your broker a snotagram and dump them.
For most traders who suspect their broker of trading against them, the chances are that they’re just not very smart with their choice of stop-levels. I’m confident enough with my broker that I can put my stop-loss (not hidden) a few pips below what I believe will be the start of Wave 1, for example. This is something that I do often and have never felt hard-done by if I get stopped – it wasn’t the start of Wave 1 after all (this is explained in the Trader Training Course).
ATM does offer one 'hidden' feature, in that you can instruct it to move your stop loss (t0 break-even or via trailing-candles/fractals) and take partial profits, at a predefined level. The broker won't see that instruction until they receive it when price reaches the level. This doesn't do away with an almost-obligatory requirement to have a stop loss sitting with the broker already, in the event of a catastrophe on your computer.
Be smart with your choice of brokers, you need to be able to trust them like you would your family doctor. Also, be smart with your stop-losses and give price room to breathe.
The plan was to make Snorm Fibo Clusters a separate indicator but given its usefulness, it seemed more sensible to integrate it into eWavesHarmonics; so that's what happened.
I've also made a video, for the Training Course, on how to use and trade with Fibo Clusters
eWH version 2.0 is available for download - currently as a beta upgrade.
If you have already downloaded the upgrade, you might want to check again - the version uploaded today allows for three degrees of freezes (some eWHers will know what I'm talking about).
Version 2.9b Beta Upgrade is available for download.
New features: -
Spread Filter - for traders with variable-spread-brokers ... you might find this handy to stop you entering new trades when the spread gets too large. You can set the 'Max Spread' in the 'Configurable EA Options' panel. I'm using it to switch off DAX trading, outside of London hours, since my broker doubles the spread then (I'm not paying them more than I need to for a trade).
'Third Off' Button can be redefined - to whatever percentage you like, in the 'Button Options' panel. You might prefer 10% or 25%, for example, rather than the previous fixed 33.33%.
BE Level for multiple trades - you can choose to hide this now, from the 'Configurable EA Options' panel..
Looking for something else with ATM? Send me an email and I'll see what I can do -providing it's likely to be of benefit to other traders as well :)
So much for me saying, in my previous blog post, that "automated trading would be my focus for this year". Sometimes, when a trader-friend asks if I know of a tool that does something good, I have to drop everything to write one; and so was the case when Brett asked me about a Fibonacci Cluster indicator.
Fibonacci clusters do an excellent job of acting as support & resistance, They also work very well as price magnets. The best thing about them: they can be drawn a long-time in advance, providing trading reference points for an entire week, or more, if required.
The big problem though, is that they can take a long time to draw manually and leave one hell of a mess on the charts.
The Snorm Fibo Clusters indi draws the cluster levels for you - you just need to connect two significant swing points. There are (one-click button) options for the types of Fibonacci levels: retracements, expansions and internal swing extensions. You can adjust the reference swing points, the variable that defines what levels are 'close' and the value of the Fibonacci levels. Getting cluster levels could not be easier.
This will only be available to traders with a current eWavesHarmonics licence, as an optional add-on (for a very reasonable price, of course). The indi is currently being tested by the FOR-EXE team and, if all goes well, should be available in the next week or two.
Here's a little promo' video for it ...
As for the EA that started so well in December ... well, it's having a tiny draw-down at the moment. I'll get back to that as soon as I can. I've got a feeling that the Fibo Clusters might help to reduce the drawn-down ... fingers crossed.
Yet again, the year has passed all too quickly and we find ourselves enjoying the season of goodwill and a trading holiday. 2018 has seen remarkable moves across just about all the instruments, the DOW in particular., offering plenty of chances to bag some pips.
For the H1 traders, eWavesHarmonics gave us lots of setups this year, just for trading eW4 into eW5, let alone the numerous other opportunities: -
EURUSD TZ1 hit 40 times for a total possible 3,967 pips (or more, if you targeted TZ2 on some trades). The last TZ1 hit was on the 19th Dec, after a retrace price went to TZ2 on the 20th – that was nearly a 10R trade from the W4 TLB.
GBPUSD H1 did even better, reaching TZ1 48 times for at least 6,886 pips
USDJPY H1 reached TZ1 38 times for a minimum 3,291 pips
In terms of pip-gains, DOW H1 was monumental: TZ1 reached 50 times for a minimum of 28,554 pips – just incredible and some mind-blowing RR opportunities there, that I know many were able to benefit from.
And … that’s just a few examples from H1. I could go on for the lower timeframes and other instruments but it takes a fair bit of time to gather those stats.
(pip figures quoted are from the bottom of eW4 to the auto-plotted TZ1)
During 2018, I added some extra videos to the Trader Training, increasing the total to 19. Feedback from traders who have done the course has been terrific, so thank you to everyone for your kind words; I’m obviously very happy that I’ve been able to help with your trading success and that some traders are now confidently trading on behalf of others. More videos to come in 2019. I also made quite a few improvements to eWavesHarmonics and the Advanced Trade Manager; and have a few more ideas for enhancements in 2019, as time permits.
In my last pre-Christmas post, I said I wanted to create a fully hands-off EA this year. With just a couple of weeks to spare, it looks like my goal has been achieved: trading eW4s into eW5s using harmonic-type patterns. The first week of forward-testing (last week) saw the account grow by 5.4%; but that’s just one week of trading on DAX and DOW M1. I’m planning to do a further 3 months of forward testing before claiming success; more details to follow when there is something worthwhile to be shared (we might just have had a lucky week). Automated trading will be my focus for the new year.
A very big THANK YOU for your support in 2018. Whatever you celebrate, at this time of year, I wish you and yours a very happy and relaxed time and, of course, a most prosperous pip-filled 2019.
We all want trade signals that alert us to high-probability trade setups, removing the need for in-depth analysis of the many variables that yield profitable trades. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of so-called ‘trade signals’ available from scammer sites - with false claims of guaranteed success – but they offer no easily-verifiable statistics to support the claims of greatness.
I get many requests for trade alerts or buy/sell signal indicators and, over recent months, have been working hard on some ideas; It’s no easy task though.
As traders, we consider some, or all, or more, of the following variables: trends (although I dislike that term – more on that in another blog post), support/resistance; supply/demand; time of day; higher timeframes; lower timeframes; fundamentals – including news releases, recent and planned; most-recent price bars; relatively-recent price bars; trend lines; gaps; patterns of all types and shapes; symmetry; balance; projections (time and price), Fibonacci levels, wave counts; etc. And … let’s not forget the plethora of technical indicators that could form a part of the decision making. The human brain, trained from years of charting, can do this in seconds, or less. Programming a computer, to consider all (or, at least, the most relevant) of these variables, is a considerable undertaking.
The fewer of the aforementioned variables that are considered, the more random the trade signals will be – likely yielding, at best, a break-even success rate.
Getting good trade alerts is just half the job. In addition to entries, we need to know where to put our stop loss, where to take profits and how to manage the trade. An alert on its own is useless, if you don't know what to do with the trade or what the best place to take profits is.
With eWavesHarmonics (eWH), we have visual representations of, what I consider to be, the most important trading variables: the technical elements that I look at for trading, plus some extras for those that like them. Presented with the many critical elements of technical trading, on the chart in view, our brains can easily focus on good setups. So, it goes without saying, that eWH is my focus for the trade signals and there are a myriad of options and setups to choose from.
Currently being tested is a setup, that anyone who has done the free trading course should know: SD4 bounce after a W4 TLB. This is a logical approach to finding the end of a correction and getting a high RR trade. The picture, at the top of this post, is an example from GBPUSD M15 since 1st October:
The blue ticks shows successful trades, reaching the minimum target of 1R.; the red cross shows losing trades (the first would have been avoided, when manual trading; the second one was only just stopped out). Putting eWH into Test mode, I let the chart auto-scroll and the setup indicator records how many wins/losses and what RR could have been achieved. In two months, you could have ‘blind-traded’ (i.e. not given any thought to other factors) this particular setup: 10 trades, 6 losses, 3 x 4R wins for a net gain of 6R … that’s very acceptable. Would the average trader, who wants to blind-trade, be happy to suffer 6 losses and only 3 x 4R wins though, even if the overall returns were very good? I suspect not, so now I need to code some of the extra variables that I would consider before trading this type of setup, then run more tests: across multiple instruments and timeframes.
I’ve done some recent testing using customised and well-known harmonic patterns for eW4 corrections (anyone with eWH can do this for themselves, if you don’t mind manual-recording). I’ll give you a clue, from my automated testing, as to which patterns make for the best end-of-W4-correction trade alerts: Bat, Gartley and quite a few of my own custom patterns. I don’t trade with harmonic patterns but if they can provide reliable trade alerts, while I’m not watching the charts, then they’ll have a place in my trading plan.
I'm making slow progress with the trade signals and will keep you posted when I have something good to share. In the meantime, it’s far better to trade with the Mark 1 Human Eye Ball indicator (any bets on how many emails I’ll get asking for that indi ?).
The Trade Levels Indi, free for ATM users, has been updated and is available for download from the ATM folder.
New features: -
A few of us have been using this for a couple of weeks and feedback has been very positive.
Great traders look for great R:R opportunities - this indi is designed to help with that endeavour.
Last week (ending 5th October 2018) provided some terrific trade opportunities on DAX and DOW one-minute charts, so it seemed like a good idea to share some of my best trades, to show how eWavesHarmonics can be used on the lower timeframes and the thought process behind taking and managing each one.
The video explains the logic for entering and managing the DOW trade, referred in the last blog post, as well as many others on DAX, that offered amazing returns.
'M1 Trading in One Week', was uploaded to the ‘Extras’ section of the Trader Training Course this morning. Feedback, so far, has been even better than I’d hoped for - I hope you enjoy it too.
There is probably enough information, in that picture alone, to tell you that the market is bullish but it would obviously help to see what price was doing to the left of the picture. Sadly, I think it would be fair to say, the majority of retail traders would just see that as congestion and wait for price to break out of the range; which is a safe option but it won't give you the best possible risk to reward.
A range-break trade, with stop loss on the other side, could have returned an R:R of 1:1 or, if you held the trade to its peak, 3:1, Not a bad return but if you went long on the very next candle, with stop below the previous, you could have easily gained at least an R:R of 7, just by using ATM's T-Candle, or even double that if you managed the trade yourself, allowing for some corrections.
This is a real trade from yesterday, on the DOW 1 minute chart ...
That trade was closed by moving the stop loss to the Target Zone 2 level (plotted by eWavesHarmonics - eWH) when price had closed above it. A return of 7.5 which, if 2% was risked, as many traders do, would have given 15% profit. If anyone had wanted to hold the trade longer, a 30% profit could have been realised. I'm a firm believer in the adage - bulls get fed, bears get fed and pigs get slaughtered - so banking a 7.5R trade, like in this example, is a nice stress-free way of trading.
eWH helped to not only show where the buyers and sellers were (the zones have been removed from the above picture, to keep it clean) but presented logical price targets to support trading long.
With some knowledge of price action at key levels, as covered in the Trader Training, plus some patience, discipline and a no-fear approach to taking and managing the trades, anyone can benefit from these setups, There have been a few such examples this week on DAX (check the London Open for some great setups) and DOW M1, as well as the main FX pairs on higher timeframes in the past week weeks., .
The important thing, as mentioned in past blog posts, is to look for the best possible R:R trades. You can happily be wrong, so many more times than you're right, with 4:1+ trades.