A trader friend recently asked me whether or not I trade during August – the month where many of the northern hemisphere traders are supposed to be on holiday (less likely during these strange times of Covid-19 lockdowns) and, according to rumour, it’s supposed to be the quietest month for trading.
I treat August like any other month, for trading purposes: if the price action is good, on any given day, then I’ll trade it. The question, however, inspired some more statistical analysis, just to see if August really is as bad as many so-called ‘trading experts’ would have you believe.
One simple approach is to just look at the monthly charts to see how the August bars compare to the rest of the year. A quick glance at a few charts suggested there was no noticeable difference. Visuals are one thing but nothing beats hard statistics; so I wrote a quick program to export the monthly data (using all available data from my broker – mostly back to 1997) for some of the main instruments, to CSV files. There are two values that seem like logical candidates for this exercise: the monthly price range (high-low) and the tick volume. If you’ve read my blog post ‘Tick Volume a Waste of Bits’, you’ll know that I have little regard for that data, it is however useful for the purposes of comparison. With the data averaged for each month, I was able to make the following summary table (click to enlarge):
If we take the first column, for DAX, you can see that May (month five) had the lowest average price range and October (month ten) had the highest. August was 11th (with 12th being the highest). Similarly, using the average tick volume, February was the lowest and October was the highest. Again, August was second from the top. Therefore, it’s plain to see, August is definitely not a quiet month in terms of trading; quite the contrary. The data for the other instruments show that August is also just as good a month as most others, for trading, although the tick volume on GBPUSD and GBPJPY is quite low then.
I would have thought that December would rank lowest for most instruments but, surprisingly, that isn’t so – although we don’t need stats to tell us that trading between Christmas and New Year is a dumb idea.
If you find yourself stuck at home this August, trade what the price action gives you.
Another crazy week on the markets but, as traders, we like crazy markets. We've had some terrific RR trades already this week and it's only Wednesday morning. There was a more than 30R opportunity on DAX M1 this morning but, sadly (and due to poor SL management on my part), the max gained was just short of 10R - still not bad.
Just in case you have no idea what an 'R' is: it's an abbreviation for Risk:Reward. A 10R trade is 1 risk for 10 reward, which could be 1% risk for 10% gain; or 2% risk for 20% gain.
Yesterday morning gave us a very simple, set-and-forget, 15R trade:, as you can see in the above picture. As I often get questions about how I do higher timeframe analysis and find the low risk trades, I made a video that talks about this trade in particular, looking at the pre-market analysis and the news events that were driving price up; along with how I identified the entry. This is available for viewing in the Trader Training Course.
eWavesHarmonics has had a simple, but important, upgrade this week, to allow for colour-coding and shading of the Fibonacci retrace levels. There is also an option to shade the TZ1 / TZ2 levels as well.
I've made a 4 minute video to show some examples of how you could have traded the 50/62 level just this week, on #EURUSD #GBPUSD and a super example of a trade taken on #DAX, just this morning, in our Skype trading group - nearly everyone had a fantastic morning with this most simple of trades.
Just one more example to show the power of the simple ABC pattern, re the previous blog post on the subject. 11% in less than half an hour and most of us in the Skype group managed to grab some very nice R:R from that setup.
In this trade, we just waited for price to get to the FE100 level, shown by the ABC123 indi and used ATM to trail when price got to the eWH TZ1 level; eventually doing a manual lock at 11R.
It's the simple stuff that works best :)
Following on from yesterday's blog post, here's an example of a simple ABC trade that some of us took in the Skype group. Risk 1 Reward 5 ... job done in less than an hour!
The simple ABC zigzag pattern is probably the easiest way to find a great risk-to-reward trade, by 'buying the dips and selling the rallies'.
As an example, every day in our Skype group, since early April, we've been looking for DAX to make its way to the ABC FE100 level, with the top of that momentum gap providing terrific confluence. Here's the chart posted in early April ... you can see for yourself, on your own charts, where price has just got to :)
I've made a YouTube video with some examples of the pattern, showing how to identify them; explaining their specifications and how you can use the features of eWavesHarmonics plus the ABC123 indi to make trading them as simple as the pattern itself. Apart from recent ABC patterns found on GBPUSD and EURUSD, there is a 'trade of your life' example with Bitcoin.
Hope you enjoy it ...
Here's a short video that looks at the two different types of losses, why they might happen and what you could do to reduce the number of losses.
Hope you like it ...
One of the most requested extra features, for the Advanced Trade Manager (ATM) has finally been added: the ability to manage your stop loss by using your favourite indicator.
The Bill Williams Alligator was top of the list but rather than just add a feature for that, I thought it would be better to allow for any indicator.
Your chosen indicator can be added to the Configurable EA Options Info Panel, where you also tell ATM what index (or buffer) is to be used from that indicator. If a valid indicator name has been used, ATM will add the T-Cust button for you to use. Like the T-Fractal, T-Candle and T-Step buttons, the T-Cust can be set for activation using the @Level button; or you can just press T-Cust when it suits you.
This short video shows the T-Cust settings and it being used for some open trades.
We’ve seen three days, this past week, where futures trading on the US indices, prior to NYSE open, was stopped due to the huge movements in price. For those not in the know, the breaks (“Limit Up Limit Down” - LULD) are applied when trading gets out of hand The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) set the rules to prevent a recurrence of the flash-crash that occurred on 6th May 2010, when the S&P, DOW and NASD collapsed in a matter of minutes; the DOW falling nearly 1,000 points (which doesn't seem like much after this week's action). You can read about the rules here
In pre-market-open, we had the “Limit Down” rule applied on Monday and Thursday and the “Limit Up” rule applied on Friday. That can be a worrying time if you have trades open when the price feed just stops. However, those trading pauses provide great opportunities for us traders. A substantial gap was formed, on each occasion, from when trading ceased to when it resumed when the markets opened. Anyone who knows me knows how much I love gaps for trading - that's why they are coded into eWavesHarmonics (eWH) . They often tell us when a wave has ended, when a new one starts and where there is momentum in a wave-in-progress; the latter one allowing us to predict where price could go to. Gaps don’t always get filled, at least in the short term, but all three of this week’s LULD gaps did.
Monday opened with a massive gap down, nearly 1000 points, as you can see. That didn’t leave much room for further trading before the NYSE open (NEO). When price reached about 1,250 points down from the week open, the selling was stopped. By the time the markets opened, price had fallen a further 600 points or so but price instantly went up to fill the gap, as an ABC correction (shown, using the ABC123 indi) ..
Thursday’s gap took a little while to be filled: price had to get to the eWH TZ2 and measuring gap projection before it felt the need to move back up and close the gap, half an hour after the London Close. Notice how price corrected to the eWH 4 - that happens a lot ...
Friday’s Limit Up gap gave the quickest gap-trading opportunity of the week, and here's how some of us did in the Skype Trading Group …
That was a 5R trade for over 200 points, in one minute. With the benefit of hindsight, we would have got 13R had we just switched on the ATM T-Candle option – but hey, who’s complaining about a 5R trade.
One week of LULD gaps that could have been easily traded for some terrific returns. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more such gaps, in the coming week(s), so keep an eye open for them.
If you haven’t already done it, you might like to check out the Trader Training Course to learn more about the different types of gaps and how they can be used to good advantage for your trading. The week open gaps have proved particularly useful for predicting where price would go to, along with other such momentum gaps during the week - just priceless.
This past week has seen a jaw-dropping $6 trillion wiped off global stocks. We’ve watched record falls across the major indices, with months of gains wiped out in just a few days of trading. The DOW has tumbled some 5,000 points, from its very recent all time high; the DAX fell over 2,000 points from it’s all time high. Just when we thought the bulls would never give up, news comes out to scare the markets and a bear run causes havoc across the globe, threatening to put countries into recession. To those traders who think you don’t need stop losses: I hope you didn’t get too burned.
Why have the markets fallen the way they have? You would have been living in a cave If you didn’t know it was because of the coronavirus, or Covid-19 to give it its proper name. But that, by itself, doesn’t explain the panic selling of stocks. The sell-off started with the traders’ view of risk: not so much the risk of deaths from a global pandemic but the risk to company profits, particularly those companies that are reliant on global supply chains and international travel. We are starting to see the risks become issues, with, for example, airlines seeing a drop in demand and suspending flights to mainland China; companies that rely on Chinese-manufactured products, such as Apple, are unable to get stock; big name companies around the world are announcing that they won’t be achieving profit forecasts this and next quarter The trickle of sells quickly became a waterfall, with nervous investors taking a loss on their investments before price falls even further. It will be many months before we know the true impact of the c-virus on company profits and the GDP of countries, yet that impact is already being priced into the markets, long before the truth is known.
That’s trading for you: buy the rumour; sell the news. Or, as is the case of last week: sell the risk now, then later buy the news. Another bull run will undoubtedly follow, when the dust has settled, and it’s probably not too early to start looking for bargains, if you’re a long-term investor. Afterall, this is just a correction, when you look at the monthly charts – a rather harsh correction but one that was long-overdue.
Could technical analysis have forecasted such a major event on global markets? Well, yes: the writing was on the wall, so to speak. Whether you’re an Elliott Wave expert, a lover of Fibonacci or (as in my case) a fan of eWavesHarmonics (eWH), you would have seen signs of a big sell setting up for the indices.
Let’s have a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average. On the 12th Feb price peaked at an all time high, completing the 5th wave of the 5th wave of the 5 wave – an Elliott Wave analyst's dream. You can see that the eWH add-on indicator, the Wave Finder (top left), also picked up wave 5s from H1 to W1, showing that price was making new highs with divergence. It wasn’t much of a surprise to see a big fall coming from there although, to my shame, I failed to spot the obvious on the day, caught up in the bullish fervour like everyone else.
So on the 12th the charts told us that something big was coming. The selling started slowly, then last weekend we had a massive momentum gap down, that really kicked the bears into action. We’ve had some good fun shorting this week but we started looking for the correction yesterday morning – you can see what happened. In theory, the correction should go back as shown in the picture: not as a straight line, obviously, but rather as an ABC correction; but that’s just theory. The markets have really shown us this week: ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN.
Unsurprisingly, given their correlation, DAX also had a 5-5-5 and the Wave Finder picked that up as well. Like DOW, price found support on a Fibonacci cluster at the bottom (not shown) before the Friday correction started.
Gold is traditionally the safe haven, where investors look to put their money when the stock market isn’t doing so well. With the indices falling, we would have expected a significant rise this week, but the bulls were going strong long before. Back on the 6th December, I published this trade idea for the daily chart: -
That’s a strong bullish run forecast, using the basic features of eWH and the automatic Fibonacci clusters. As predicted, price broke above the 3S zone, tested it and went above the TZ1 in the week before the indices crashed. It had an exhaustion gap on Monday, with a big upside rejection at the Fib’ clusters, then fell sharply on Friday, as the indices rose to finish the week (a lot of profit-taking before the weekend).. This is how the the PA unfolded on gold ...
Fundamentals, as with the c-virus and its risk to global economies, are very much the fuel of the market but, as you can see from the few chart examples here, some basic technical analysis can tell you when something big is going to happen, a long time before it does. We saw it clearly with Brexit and GBPUSD and we’ve seen it with plenty of other examples as well. Keep an eye open for those 5-5-5s if you’re looking to get in at the start of a big move.
Whilst there have been some terrific trading opportunities this week, let’s not forget those who have sadly passed away from Covid-19, as well as the loved ones who mourn their loss. It’s an awful time for tens of thousands of people and our thoughts, prayers and best wishes are with them. Take care everyone and be safe.