Daily Percentage Moves
When you listen to the news, be it national TV or specialist channels such as Bloomberg, you will usually hear that a particular instrument - be it an index, commodity, forex pair, etc. – has gone up or down by x percent on the day. Percentage gains and losses are easy to understand whereas pips can be relatively meaningless, if you don’t know the price of the instrument and what its typical daily movements are.
So it’s rather surprising that I never hear any retail traders refer to percentage moves on the day. The percent levels probably act as well as pivot levels in terms of support and resistance. A gain or loss of just half or one percent, from the opening price, can be quite significant and prove to be the ceiling or floor of that day’s move. With the help of an indicator to plot the percentage levels and some basic candle analysis, a trader can find some nice trading opportunities, as this example shows (a random period on Dax M15 with just some of the possible quick trades).
Just for the fun of it, I thought I’d see how fib-based percentage moves might look. Here is a period on GBPUSD with 38.6, 50, 61.8 and 78.6 percent levels.
It’s easy to check what the typical daily percentage moves are on any instrument, using the ‘History Centre’ in MetaTrader. Select the instrument and daily timeframe; ‘export’ to a csv file; add your own excel calculations to get the percentage difference of high and low from the open. With the help of a pivot table you can quickly see, for example (using 1,555 bars), that 62% of the time, the high and low on the Dax is at least half a percent from the open. About 34% of the time, the high and low will be one percent or more. Only nine percent of the time there has been two percent or more gain but twelve percent of the time there has been a two or more percent drop.
You’re more than welcome to have a play with the percent level indicator – just download it from the Free Indicators tab. This isn’t some magical indicator that will necessarily guarantee improved trading results but you might find it of some use. It has the option to work with yesterday's close price, today’s open or the market open hour of your choosing. You can of course customise the percent levels as you prefer.
The main thing is that percentage moves on any instrument are something to be mindful of. Would you go long on the Dax when it has already moved one percent up on the day, knowing that, according to history, there is only a 1 in 3 chance of price going higher?
Does your indicator repaint?
You would not believe just how many times people use the ‘contact us’ form to ask that question about eWaves.
I’m not sure that many understand what ‘repaint’ really means. I believe I understand why they ask the question though: they’ve been scammed by buying useless buy/sell indicators and are only asking about the repaint because they think eWaves might be a buy/sell indicator. Well, it’s not. If that’s what you’re looking for then carry on buying rubbish from scammers.
eWaves is a very simple approach to Elliott Wave analysis. Do Elliotticians re-plot their wave counts as new price data comes in? Of course they do. Wave counts are not confirmed until they are completed; and so it is with eWaves. Where eWaves might see a wave 5, new price data could come in that turns that 5 into a 3. At some point, what was a wave 5 will disappear off the chart and a new 5 will later appear. Similarly, a wave 4 of an uptrend could turn into a big wave 3 in a down trend. eWaves is constantly looking at the last 140 or so bars. As a new price bar is formed, the oldest bar is ignored, and so on and on. So the answer to the question is:
OF COURSE IT DOES! IT WOULD BE USELESS IF IT DIDN’T.
Like many newbie traders in the early days, I wasted far too much time and money looking for the perfect buy/sell indicator, or combination of indicators, that would elevate my trading success. Even if there are good buy/sell indicators out there that I don’t know about, they are unlikely to tell you how to manage your trade: where to put your stop loss, where to take profits, how to trail your stops, etc. I will bet my house that even after reading this blog post, newbie traders will still carry on wasting their hard-earned money on scam trading systems; buying buy/sell indies from crooks who not only don’t trade, they don’t know how to. The internet is awash with these scammers who only make their living by selling shit to gullible people looking for a quick route to untold riches. If you're one of those gullible wannabe traders, then feel free to ask the scammers if their indicator repaints - I'd be surprised if they even bothered to answer your question, honestly or otherwise.
More than a decade after discovering Forex, guess what I use for trading? Clean charts and eWaves (apart from my News EA of course). You do not need a plethora of indicators cluttering your chart to trade successfully; you only need price history.
By the way, I’m really hoping to release the next version of eWaves soon. It has been years in development – with other projects taking priority along the way. A few friends are trying it out for me and I have a few little glitches to fix. A beta version should be available next month, with a limited release initially to my News EA customers.
As a nice little wrap-up, here’s eWaves in action on GBPUSD monthly, showing how you could have made over 4000 pips trading eW4 to the (yet to be hit) automatically plotted TZ1 (first target zone) of eW5. Let’s see if it gets there ...
Trading The Forex News – how to get a third off the cost of the Advanced Forex News Trader EA
In the middle of 2014 someone (quite well known and respected in Forex circles) approached me with an idea for trading the Forex news. I was somewhat sceptical at the time but wrote a version of the Advanced News Trader EA anyway. His approach was largely based on fundamentals e.g. if the USD is strong then only look for long $ trades. Whilst there was some merit in that logic, it soon became evident to me that the fundamentals were just a distraction: it didn’t really matter whether the traded currency was strong or weak; news moved price full stop.
By the middle of 2015 I had doubled my own trading account, trading various red news releases with numerous different settings, up to several times a week. With that success, the EA was polished up and tweaked to allow for traders in all time zones. In Jul;y 2015 the first copies were made available to some of my trader friends.
Not a month has gone by since where I haven’t received kind words of thanks from users of the EA, from all over the world. There have been instances of traders making 25% profit on a single news release; 10 to 12% profit is not at all uncommon. I have doubled my account again this year, and we’re only just in to August. My initial risk each way: just 1%.
I know of no other method of trading Forex that so frequently generates profits like this; particularly in such a hands-off way. Anyone who is a member of the AIMS Skype Group will have seen first-hand the sort of success being achieved by users of the EA: it’s a major talking point with results and charts being shared by the happy traders. Here are the trades that increased my account by 12.78% with NFP on Friday …
Some traders are using ATM to good effect to manage the trades opened by the News EA – moving SL to BE or trailing stops. I prefer a simpler approach and just let the EA work its magic. Sometimes I close trades out manually, if I happen to be in front of my charts and have set extended TPs. When I’m not around to watch the trades, I just set realistic TPs and let the EA do its thing. We’ve had a terrific August, with UK and USA news – phenomenal! It’s a great feeling to open the charts and see the trading account has increased by a sizeable percentage without having the stress of placing and managing trades.
I’m not sure if people think it’s too expensive or not. I made much more than the cost of the EA just from my last news trade; and that’s with a relatively small account. I’m not the only one either, some made 5 x the cost of the EA on Friday. However, if you do think it’s too expensive for your budget, I will do you a deal. Open an account with GKFX by clicking on the GKFX logo on this website; use that for trading the news; I will give you a third off the price: £200 for a one-year licence, instead of £300. I’m not into marketing and spamming. You won’t see this being advertised elsewhere. Only readers of this blog and my trading friends know about this Forex News Trading robot.
So if you don’t already have the Advanced News Trader EA, why don’t you do yourself a favour?
Spiros S - Greece - trading with GKFX CFD account ...
"I came across News Trader EA late 2015. Frankly, it is the best tool I have used. And the most rewarding one. I have created a separate MT4 account that trades only major news and market open with News Trader EA. Since April, this account has grown by more that 80%. Trully a remarkable trading tool. I would strongly recommend it to anyone who takes trading seriously."
Billy McC - Scotland - trading with GKFX SB account ...
"Snorms News Trader has quickly become the most reliable pip producing tool i have available. I set it once a week to trade the news i want and let it do its stuff, which it has done consistently to the tune of between 15% - 30% return every single month since i started using it seriously at the start of 2016.
As soon as you realise that not every red news event should be traded and only concentrate on the news that really moves the market then this tool comes into its own and its almost like printing money yourself.
I only wish i took it more seriously when i bought it originally back 2015, but hey, you can learn from my mistake :)"
Immy Y - iTradeAIMS.com UK - trading with GKFX SB multiple accounts
"I have been using Steve's fantastic Advanced News Trader EA for just under a year now.
And my results so far look to be about the same as his - on course for doubling the account every year.
Steve is a good friend of mine and we have both been looking for something that works, just like the rest of you. Steve is on a mission.
Steve is not your average coder or a wanna be trader. He's been at it for a
long time now. He has found a method that works. I am not very much surprised
to see that he's decided to share this great method with the rest of the world.
Because Steve believes in sharing. He cares for others and that's exactly what he's doing.
Its so effective that experienced traders wonder if we could get Steve to take it off the market.
My reply is generally the same as Steve. "Just trying to help others do better"
If you are looking for a method that works. A method that requires very little attention
and time yet very reliable then look no further. You've found it. I urge you to seriously
consider this as a golden opportunity and do not wait. Life does not always offer such
opportunities. A wise person would snap it without delaying. Our biggest enemy is our
tendency to over complicate things and procrastination. Take action Now and take advantage of this fantastic offer.
Thanks Steve ever so much for this great piece of coding and the "concept" behind it. Its simply
A-M-A-Z-I-N-G. I love it.
Here is a link to my live account Nov 2015- Aug 2016 81.3% Growth so far...
Kyle S -Tasmania - trading GKFX CFD account ...
"I purchased my annual licence for Steves news Trading ea back in October last year, and to be honest, it is the amongst one of the best decisions I have made as a trader. The total amount of time required to use this very simple ea is minimal. Literally just minutes each month. It is the prefect tool to choose and trade what we call the CDLC events (Crème De La Crème) such as NFP, FOMC and interest rate announcements. I have had similar results to Steve, gaining double digit returns in each of the last three months, including this month, which at the time of writing this is only 9 days old. Cannot recommend this high enough. I am happy to share my past news results to offer as proof.
For the sceptics – and I am not Steve, but this is what I think of the usual questions. Why sell it? He has a genuine desire to see others do well. It is not like selling the ea will hurt his own trading. If that’s so, why doesn’t he give it away? I personally see the price of the ea is to stop the people attaining a copy, and flooding him with questions that a simple bit of research will fine, and it does show that the trader purchasing it is actually serious about using it. Let’s face it, how many free indicators have we all got that we do not use.
I do not believe there is a “Black Box” solution available to us to trade the markets with consistency, however, Steves News Trading ea is the absolute closest thing I have seen to it. Just a small decision by us to trade the news announcement, set the time for the ea to do its thing and simply walk away from it, allowing it to do its thing for you – or you could hang around to watch and possibly manage the trade after it takes off. All up to the end user, but it will honestly be the best decision you will ever make in regards to buying an ea."
Grant H - England - trading GKFX SB account ...
"I was always taught to never enter on red news events. How wrong was that advice.
With Steve's unbelievable coding skill I now have the perfect tool (EA) to trade the sometimes highly volatile news releases and to make it even better I do nothing but set it up and watch.
News has never been more fun to trade."
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