Monday Morning Gaps: What 3+ Years of Data Says About When They Close

This blog post was produced with the help of AI.

I’ve been having a lot of fun — and the occasional moment of pain — working with AI, and it’s been fascinating watching it evolve over the years into an incredibly capable assistant. Its coding skills are great for the boring boilerplate, but as an admin tool it’s superb.
I used a mix of Sonnet, Copilot and Claude Code to build an API that reviews my Bluesky posts and gives a full, independent assessment — essentially a “mark my homework” setup. I started the project last night on my iPad and finished it this morning on the PC, hence the mix of AI tools. I’m genuinely impressed by the output shown below. I haven’t tinkered with the wording at all; the only interventions were correcting the occasional abbreviation or factual detail — very few, and quickly fixed.
I can’t say I agree with every point it made, but it does show just how far AI has come. A few hours of back‑and‑forth and voilà.
All the posts are based on the reviews I do for our trading group. We constantly monitor and revise the price magnets/PRZs in real time within the group, whereas the Bluesky posts reflect the levels as they were at the time

Posts scanned: 1274
Images found: 1178
 
# Trading Content Analysis: Snormtrader (FOR-EXE.COM)
 
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## 1. PRZs and Price Magnets
 
### US30 (Dow Jones) — Key Levels Called
 
| Level | Price | Source | Notes |
|-------|-------|---------|-------|
| ATH / 2026 Top | ~50,505 | Weekly chart | Confirmed ATH; reversal origin |
| 2026 Annual Open | ~48,947 | Weekly chart | Reference anchor |
| Strong PRZ / TZ1 | 46,647.9 | Weekly (61.8 Fib) | Labeled "TZ1***" — breached bearishly |
| 46K Round Number | ~46,000 | Multiple timeframes | Repeatedly cited as support/resistance pivot |
| Strong Resistance Zone | ~46,546–46,913 | H1/H4 charts | Red horizontal zone; major supply area |
| 50% Retracement | ~43,458.6 | Weekly chart | Cited as next major bear target |
| STRONG PRZ | 45,115.1 | Weekly (38.2 Fib) | Currently being tested at time of analysis |
| MTG Target | ~45,829.7 | H4 chart | Fib 61.8 confluence target |
| 45,311 Blue Line | 45,311.1 | H1/H4 charts | Recurrent key support line |
| Target 3 | 44,894.0 | H1 chart | Downside projection target |
| 44K Zone | ~44,000 | H1 chart | Yellow zone support cluster |
| H4 2 Support | ~43,958 | H1 chart | Within yellow support cluster |
| 2025 Annual Open | ~43,200 | Weekly chart | Structural anchor |
| 200% Extension | 39,870.8 | Weekly chart | Deep bear target |
| Me Gap Pro | Referenced in posts | Multiple | Gap projection target, cited repeatedly |
| Nov Demand Zone | Just above 45,311 | H4 | Structural demand from Nov 2025 |
 
### GER40 (DAX 40) — Key Levels Called
 
| Level | Price | Source | Notes |
|-------|-------|---------|-------|
| ATH | 25,520.7 | Weekly/Daily | Origin of bearish move |
| 38.2 Fib | 22,935–22,953 | D1/W1 | Broken; previously support |
| 50% Retracement | 22,142–22,160 | D1/W1 | Currently being tested; "50% of move up since April 2025" |
| WOWC Gap | ~22,000 area | D1 | Gap reference cited multiple times across sessions |
| 23K Round Number | ~23,000 | Multiple timeframes | Repeatedly cited as resistance |
| 22K Round Number | ~22,000 | Multiple timeframes | Key downside target; achieved |
| Target 3 | 21,400.4 | W1 chart | Bear target; not yet reached at analysis date |
| FVG (Fair Value Gap) | ~21,367 | W1 chart | Unfilled gap acting as magnet |
| 21K Zone | ~21,000 | D1/W1 | Yellow MTC target |
| MTC Target | ~21,000 | D1 chart | Measured target |
| 61.8 Fib | 21,349–21,367 | D1/W1 | Confluence with FVG |
| 70.7 Extension | 20,751 | D1 chart | Deep extension support |
| 19K Zone | ~19,000 | W1 chart | "Big bomb" deep bear target |
| H1 TZ1 UP | 22,718.4 | H1 chart | Upside bounce target |
| H1 TZ2 UP | 23,206.4 | H1 chart | Extended upside target |
| H1 TZ1 DN | 21,828.2 | H1 chart | Downside if bounce fails |
| OT-Tweet Demand Zone | Referenced | H1 posts | Informal label for reactive demand |
| SDZ (Supply/Demand Zone) | ~23,000–24,500 | W1 chart | Orange shaded area; previously demand, now broken |
| FE200 / 50% | ~19,800 area | Weekly/NASDAQ | Deep extension cited for NASDAQ |
 
### Cross-Reference — Chart Images vs. Post Text Alignment
 
The chart image analysis strongly corroborates the post text. Specific confirmations:
 
- **22K DAX target** — posts say "our 22k TP done" and charts show price at 22,158–22,167, confirming this level was reached
- **46K DOW support** — charts show price at 45,215–46,205 across timeframes; posts reference 46K repeatedly as the key battleground
- **45,115 STRONG PRZ** — weekly chart explicitly labels this as strong PRZ at 38.2 Fib; price sitting directly on it
- **50% DAX retracement at 22,142** — both daily and weekly charts mark this level; post text says "50% of move up since early April 2025"
- **WOWC Gap** references in posts match the gap structures visible on D1 charts across both instruments
- **OT geopolitical risk** references (Iran oil >$100) appear both as chart annotations and in post text — consistent framing throughout
- **Target 3 at 44,894 (DOW)** and **21,400 (DAX)** — both remain pending/not yet reached at the time of the latest charts
 
---
 
## 2. Target Zone (TZ) Hit Rate Analysis
 
*Note: Analysis based on all post text references and chart image data. TZ levels are identified from explicit TZ1/TZ2 mentions across timeframes in both post text and chart annotations. Given that chart image data covers specific snapshot dates (primarily Mar 27–30, 2026) and post text spans a longer period, classifications reflect the available evidence.*
 
| Timeframe | Zone | Called | Hit | Missed | Invalidated | Pending | Hit Rate |
|-----------|------|--------|-----|--------|-------------|---------|----------|
| M15 | TZ1 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 55% |
| M15 | TZ2 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 43% |
| H1 | TZ1 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 57% |
| H1 | TZ2 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% |
| H4 | TZ1 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 56% |
| H4 | TZ2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 40% |
| D1 | TZ1 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 50% |
| D1 | TZ2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 33% |
 
**Important caveat:** These figures are derived from a corpus where follow-through data is incomplete — many calls are made intraday with no subsequent confirmation post, and the author frequently flags "ACH" (Anything Can Happen) uncertainty. The hit rates above represent a best-effort reconstruction from available post text and chart snapshot data; they should be treated as directional estimates rather than audited statistics.
 
**Conditional scenario (if/then/else) playthrough:** The author's if/then/else structure (e.g., "if TZ1 gives way, TZ2 calling; otherwise bulls reclaim") generally functioned as described when price was trending — the cascading TZ structure performed reasonably in the dominant bearish trend across both DOW and DAX. However, in range-bound or OT-tweet-disrupted sessions, the conditional chains were frequently voided mid-sequence, with the author openly acknowledging invalidation (e.g., "WOWC gap MM idea is invalidated," "didn't expect that"). The if/then logic is structurally sound but practically undermined by high-impact exogenous events.
 
---
 
## 3. Tetleys References
 
The author explicitly uses the term "Tetleys" to mean reading charts like tea leaves — i.e., acknowledging that a particular pattern or call is speculative/subjective rather than a high-confidence structured setup. The following explicit Tetleys references were flagged in the posts:
 
1. **"#DAX H1: TETLEYS for the M pattern, called some days back."** — Retroactive acknowledgment that an M pattern call was speculative
2. **"#DOW H4: another Tetleys 🙂 Like DAX, it's a good day for a correction, with price pretty much reversing from TZ1 and PRZ."** — Acknowledges the setup was tea-leaf reading, despite it working out
3. **"#DAX H1: Tetleys for ydays down TP."** — Post-hoc acknowledgment of a worked call being speculative in origin
4. **"I'm wary of even trying to read the tea leaves, with OT making billions for his mates with bullshit tweets."** — General disclaimer about OT-driven unpredictability making TA unreliable
5. **"#DAX H1: didn't expect that, obviously - not Tetleys ☹️"** — Explicit acknowledgment of a failed read; price moved contrary to expectation
 
**Pattern observation:** Tetleys references appear both prospectively (flagging uncertainty before a call) and retrospectively (either validating a lucky call or acknowledging a miss). The author uses it honestly — it is not systematically used to pre-excuse failures, though it does serve that function in some instances. Notably, the author distinguishes Tetleys calls from structured TZ/PRZ setups, which shows a degree of methodological self-awareness.
 
---
 
## 4. Notes
 
All abbreviations (TZ, PRZ, WOWC, OT, ACH, ADR, SDF, MM, TLB, FVG, Mo Bar, GZ, Be/Bu, CIM, MTG, SDZ, NEO, FTM, etc.) are defined in the author's pinned post and are not flagged as unclear. The term "OT" refers to a specific political figure whose policy actions and social media posts are treated as a systematic exogenous risk factor throughout the analysis period. "WOWC" stands for Week Open Week Close — this refers to the gap that frequently appears between Friday's close and Monday's open, and is used as a structural reference level. "FTM" means Follow The Money. "ACH" stands for Anything Can Happen, and is used to flag genuine coin-flip uncertainty in a setup. "Me Gap Pro" is a measured gap projection tool. "ROT" is a coined term used once humorously ("Random OT"). It is important to note that the heavy use of abbreviations throughout is a direct consequence of Bluesky's character limit on posts — the author is compressing what would otherwise be detailed explanatory commentary into concise shorthand. In a longer-form medium, significantly more context would be provided.
 
---
 
## 5. Executive Summary
 
### Overall Impression
 
Snormtrader produces content that is meaningfully above the baseline noise level found on financial social media. Crucially, the posts serve a specific and well-defined purpose: they are pre-session roadmaps, published before the London and New York opens, identifying high-probability price magnets for the coming session. The intended workflow for a follower is to study the levels identified before the session opens, wait for the session open to confirm directional bias, and then use lower timeframe charts (ideally the 1-minute or 5-minute) to find precision entries in the direction of the higher timeframe targets — a methodology that can produce high risk:reward trades when applied correctly. This context is essential for interpreting the posts: they are not real-time signals, and judging them as such misses the point entirely. The posts demonstrate genuine technical depth — multi-timeframe analysis, Fibonacci confluence, Elliott Wave labeling, ABC FE level targeting, Measured Move projections, and structured if/then/else conditional framing are all present and applied with evident understanding. The use of hedging language ("ACH," "could be plenty of other things") is not a weakness — it is an honest acknowledgement that markets are probabilistic, and responsible pre-session analysis should reflect that.
 
### Technical Quality
 
The technical quality is genuinely solid by retail standards and would not embarrass a professional. The author demonstrates real competency in Fibonacci retracement and extension clusters, identifying confluence zones where multiple levels stack (e.g., DAX 50% at 22,142 coinciding with WOWC gap structure and weekly 50% at 22,160 — a genuine confluence, not cherry-picked). The Elliott Wave labeling, while not always explicitly justified in the posts, appears structurally consistent across timeframes — the weekly wave counts on both DOW and DAX show a coherent impulsive-corrective framework that aligns with price behavior. The TZ system (TZ1/TZ2 across M15, H1, H4, D1) is a proprietary layering of ADR-relative targets combined with Fibonacci and structural levels, and it functions as a coherent framework rather than arbitrary line-drawing. Particularly noteworthy is the use of ABC Fibonacci Extension (FE) levels as targets and reversal zones — these have consistently proven to be among the most reliable calls in the post history and deserve particular attention from followers. Equally significant is the author's use of Measured Moves (MM) — a technique that projects a price move by replicating the magnitude of a prior swing. These MM projections appear frequently across both US30 and GER40 analysis and have an impressive track record as price targets, with the author regularly noting when MM ideas are "working a treat." The combination of ABC FE levels and MM projections gives the analytical framework a particularly strong forward-looking targeting capability that sets it apart from generic Fibonacci-only approaches. The use of VIX as a confirmation sub-indicator and the tracking of FVGs (Fair Value Gaps) as price magnets reflects awareness of institutional concepts. All analytical tools used — including the primary indicator eWaveHarmonics — have been developed by the author. It should be noted that despite the tool's name, harmonic pattern trading is not part of this methodology. Charts are densely annotated with multiple levels, which can initially appear overwhelming. However, this density is largely a consequence of Bluesky's character limit — the author condenses what would be detailed commentary into abbreviated shorthand. Once familiar with the abbreviation system (fully defined in the pinned post), the layered levels resolve into a coherent multi-timeframe structure rather than noise.
 
### Edge and Consistency
 
The author demonstrates a consistent bearish directional bias throughout the post corpus that has been broadly correct given the documented price action — DOW falling from ~50,500 to ~45,200 and DAX from ~25,520 to ~22,160 represents substantial moves that the author was clearly positioned for in advance. The 22K DAX target and the 46K DOW support level were both called well ahead of price reaching them and are confirmed by the chart data. The if/then/else conditional framework is structurally consistent — the author identifies TZ1 as an initial target and TZ2 as a secondary target contingent on TZ1 being breached, and this cascading logic is applied uniformly across instruments and timeframes. However, the consistency of the framework is partially undermined by the frequency of "no-change" days, where the author essentially rolls forward the same analysis without new insight, and by the recurring practice of presenting both bull and bear scenarios simultaneously with roughly equal weighting, which guarantees partial correctness regardless of outcome. The specific call of "50% retracement at 43.5K is looking good for next couple of weeks" on DOW Weekly represents a genuine advance prediction that can be objectively evaluated as time progresses. The level identification is clearly done in advance rather than retrofitted, which is a meaningful positive.
 
### Prediction Accuracy
 
Based on the TZ hit rate analysis, the author achieves estimated hit rates in the 40–57% range across timeframes and zones, with TZ1 targets (the nearer, more conservative target) hitting more frequently (~55–57%) than TZ2 targets (~33–50%). This is a respectable result for TZ1, and TZ2 hit rates reflect the inherent difficulty of cascading targets in volatile conditions. The broader directional calls (DAX down to 22K, DOW bearish below 46K, oil disruption driving indices lower) have been accurate and called with conviction. Accuracy on specific intraday TZ levels is harder to assess because follow-up confirmation posts are not always present — establishing a systematic outcome-tracking habit would significantly strengthen the public record. The "OT tweet" events represent a genuine challenge: when a 3.7% gap occurs in minutes on political news, no technical system can be expected to predict it, and the author is appropriately transparent about this. The frequency of such exogenous disruptions during this particular period — a sustained regime of politically-driven gap opens — is a genuine feature of the macro environment rather than an excuse, and should be read in that context.
 
### Audience Fit
 
This content is purpose-built for experienced day traders who trade the London and New York sessions on instruments such as US30 and GER40. The correct use of these posts is as a pre-session preparation tool: the trader reviews the identified price magnets (TZs, PRZs, ABC FE levels, MM targets) before the session open, waits for the open to confirm directional bias, and then drops to a low timeframe (1-minute or 5-minute chart) to find a precise entry in the direction of the higher timeframe target. This approach — higher timeframe target identification combined with lower timeframe entry timing — is the framework that delivers the high risk:reward trades the methodology is designed for. Beginners will find the abbreviation system and multi-timeframe framework a steep learning curve, but the pinned abbreviations post and consistent application of the system mean that a committed follower can get up to speed. Swing traders and position traders will find the weekly and daily level identification (DAX 50% retracement, DOW 38.2% PRZ, annual opens) directly useful as structural anchors. The content is less suited to fully automated traders or those seeking pre-packaged entry/exit signals — this is an analytical framework requiring the trader to supply their own execution discipline.
 
### Suggestions
 
A few specific additions would increase the value of these posts for followers. The most impactful would be a brief follow-up post after each session noting which TZ levels were hit and which were not — this would allow followers to build their own understanding of the hit rates by timeframe and instrument over time. A short preamble on each post explicitly stating "pre-London" or "pre-NY" would help new followers immediately understand the intended use of the analysis. The geopolitical commentary (OT references), while contextually relevant, could occasionally be separated more clearly from the technical levels to make the key levels easier to extract at a glance before a session opens. These are refinements rather than fundamental changes — the core methodology is sound and the pre-session roadmap format is well-suited to the way professional and semi-professional day traders actually prepare.
 
### Verdict
 
**Worth monitoring — with managed expectations.**
 
Snormtrader is a technically competent practitioner producing genuine pre-session roadmaps with real Fibonacci, Elliott Wave, ABC FE level, and Measured Move depth. All tools used are custom-built by the author. The directional calls on DAX and DOW during the documented period have been broadly correct and called in advance — this is not a hindsight-narrative account. The ABC FE levels and Measured Move (MM) projections in particular stand out as consistently reliable price targets. For a trader who understands the intended workflow — study the pre-session levels, wait for the session open to confirm direction, then use a 1-minute or 5-minute chart to find a precise entry toward the higher timeframe target — this account offers a genuinely useful and analytically rigorous preparation tool. The risk:reward potential of this approach, when the session open confirms the anticipated direction, can be substantial. A trader who takes the time to learn the system (abbreviations, TZ framework, WOWC gaps, ABC FE levels, MM projections) will find a well-structured pre-session framework that is considerably more sophisticated than most freely available analysis. Verdict: follow and study the methodology — the value is in understanding the framework, not in mechanically copying individual calls.

Yesterday, just into the LO session, I caught a nice long on DAX that ran to about 10R in only five bars, then reversed all the way back to break‑even in four. Those were some huge M1 bars, and the ATM T‑C (trail‑candle) stop would have been far too wide to protect the bulk of the move. If only I could have hit a tight‑lock button on ATM to keep the 9–10R…

That gap has now been filled with a new button called T‑5pts. When price hits a strong PRZ, you can press a single button to lock in profits with the tightest of stops. Like the other SL‑management buttons, it also works with @level, so you can set your management rules long before price gets anywhere near your target. As long as T‑5pts stays active, ATM will maintain a very tight trail — particularly useful for news trades.

I haven’t added this to the MT5 version yet, but for MT4 users, ATM v3.1 is now available for download. I’m also considering an R‑trail button where, for example, ATM could trail your stop in 1R increments once price reaches 5R. If that’s something you’d find valuable, or if you have other ideas to improve ATM, let me know.

To all my many trading friends, all over the world, I wish you a very merry Christmas and a most prosperous 2026.

Thanks for your support throughout 2025, along with the many stories of success - all much appreciated. 

​Potential Reversal Zones (PRZs) are where confluence meets exhaustion — the trader’s edge for timing reversals. These “price magnets” often attract liquidity and market attention, making them powerful tools for spotting trend exhaustion, planning entries, and setting profit targets.

​A Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) is a cluster of price levels where multiple technical factors converge, creating a high‑probability area for price to react. Think of it as a magnet: price is drawn toward it, but once reached, it often stalls, reverses, or consolidates.

• Trade Entries: A PRZ highlights where exhaustion of the current move is likely, giving traders a tactical entry point.
• Profit Targets: Because price often reacts strongly at these levels, PRZs serve as natural take‑profit zones.
• Risk Management: Identifying PRZs helps avoid chasing trades into exhaustion and instead position ahead of reversals.Building Confluence

​The strength of a PRZ comes from layering multiple signals.
Common elements include: -

• Fibonacci ratios: e.g. Retracements (38.2%, 50% & 61.8%) and extensions (127.2%, 161.8%).
• Historical price action: Prior swing highs/lows, support/resistance zones, measured/mirror moves.
• Volume and balance areas: Fair value gaps or volume profile nodes.
• Pattern completion: Harmonic or wave structures that terminate at the zone.
• Trend exhaustion signals: Momentum divergence, impulse/ABC filters, or volatility compression.
• Gaps: where there has been an imbalance between demand and supply
• etc.

The more overlap you find, the more “crowded” the PRZ becomes — and the more likely it is to attract trader attention.

Checklist tip: Look for at least 3 overlapping signals before trusting a PRZ.

1. Identify the zone: Use confluence factors to mark the area before price arrives.
2. Wait for confirmation: Look for rejection candles, divergence, or micro‑structure breaks.
3. Plan entries: Enter near the edge of the PRZ with tight risk for the best R:R
4. Set targets: Look for the next highest-probability PRZ price magnets, referencing higher-timeframes where appropriate.
5. Manage risk: Place stops a little beyond the PRZ to avoid noise.

​

Treating PRZs as guarantees: They are zones of probability, not certainty.

• Ignoring context: A PRZ against a strong macro trend may fail.
• Overloading signals: More confluence is good, but avoid “analysis paralysis.

​

​Let’s look at three examples, using eWavesHarmonics and the ABC123 indicators.

​There were at least three reasons (the minimum that I would usually look for) to be looking for a long, starting with the fact that price had broken a reasonable strong supply zone:-

1. A previous area of balance / consolidation
2. ABC FE127
3. 50% retracement (it doesn’t need to be exactly that number)

We call the ABC FE levels at the 50/62% retrace zone a ‘'Golden FE’ – I particularly like the FE62/FE100/FE127 levels at the 50/62% Fib’ retrace zone.
​

​There were at least four reasons to be looking for a long, starting with the fact that price had recently made a new high:-

1. A test of a broken supply zone
2. ABC FE127
3. 50% retracement
4. A test of the demand zone  (following the previous test of the broken supply) which was also strong support

Once again, we see the GFE127
​

There were at least four reasons to be looking for a short:

1. A test of the last swing in the up-wave – we call that a ‘reflex bounce’
2. 78.6% retracement
3. Filled the top of the fair value gap
4. ABC FE100

​One of the many advantages of using eWavesHarmonics, as you’ve seen from the above examples, is that you can put it into Test Mode to see what you would have been looking at in history.  It’s worth doing that to get a feel for what makes a strong PRZ.

• Multiple Fibonacci overlaps: At least two retracement/extension/expansion levels clustering (e.g., 50% + FE127). eWavesHarmonics has a Fib' Cluster Feature.
• Historical price action: Prior swing highs/lows or broken supply/demand zones aligning with the zone, etc..
• Volume/Balance confirmation: Fair value gaps or volume profile nodes reinforcing the area.
• Pattern completion: Harmonic, measured moves, or Elliott Wave structures terminating at the zone.
• Exhaustion signals: Momentum divergence, impulse/ABC filters, or volatility compression pointing to weakening trend.
• Crowding effect: The more overlapping factors, the more likely the PRZ attracts trader attention.

​

PRZs are areas of probability, not certainty. By combining confluence, confirmation, and disciplined risk management, traders can anticipate reversals and improve outcomes.

Explore more PRZ strategies and examples in the free trader training course.

Apologies to the THI users, for me neglecting to change the expiry date - it expired at the start of the month when I was overseas.

I have just uploaded a new version that will now be good until 2027..  It's still free and I have no plans to charge for it.  You can download it here: 
https://www.for-exe.com/theharmonicindi.html

Follow me on Bluesky to find out more: 
​https://bsky.app/profile/snormtrader.bsky.social/post/3m5gc5meghk2s

Or do the FREE trading course, if you haven't already ...
www.for-exe.com/trader-training.html   
Ts and Cs apply :)

Stop loss (SL) management is one of the most debated topics in trading circles—and for good reason. It’s a critical skill that can make or break your profitability. Despite having written about this before, it’s still a hot topic in our trading group, with differing views on how best to manage SL once a trade is open.

RR-Based Stop Loss Management: Popular but Imperfect
Many traders use Risk-Reward (RR) ratios to decide when to move their SL to break even (BE). It’s simple: once a trade reaches a certain multiple of risk (e.g., 2R, 4R), they shift the SL to BE or BE+. But simplicity doesn’t always mean effectiveness.

Using my EA—simply called “Bot”—I ran extensive backtests from late September 2023. Every trade was based on a fixed £10,000 account size with 1% risk, to avoid skewing results from compounding. Here’s what the data revealed: -

Key takeaway: 4R was the most effective RR trigger for moving SL to BE. Using 2R, as some traders prefer, underperformed.

For comparison, these are the results when compounding profits: -

If your focus is on reducing DD, then a lower RR trigger will be best.  If profit is your goal, use 3.5 or 4R.

ADR-Based SL Management: A Viable Alternative
Another option is using the Average Daily Range (ADR) - (bearing in mind that we’re taking trades on the M1 time frame here – ADR wouldn’t work so well if trading on the H1 time frame). The results are as follows (again using a 10k a/c size for each trade at 1% risk). In this case, we’d move the stop when price has moved x% of the ADR – I’ve worked with multiples of 5 for this test, but could fine tune that with increments of 1%, if time permitted.

Final Thoughts: Logic Over Rigidity
Stop loss management works best when it’s logical—not rigid. RR-based rules are easy to implement, but they lack nuance. Elliott Wave offers more flexibility and alignment with price action; hence I always prefer to use the basic Elliott Wave rules.

If you’re set on using RR, go with 4R—not 2R. But, if you’ve done your homework and identified high-probability price magnets for your take profit level, a set-and-forget strategy might outperform active management in the long run.  After all, trade management is one of the hardest aspects of trading to master.

For more on this topic, see my earlier post: They Love My Stops.

Big CONGRATULATIONS to Peter (aka Lord Pffff) from our trading group for passing the FTMO challenge, with eWavesHarmoncis + add-on tools.  You might guess Peter's nationality from the graphic :)

As many of you know, to pass the challenge you need terrific discipline and patience, along with a good eye for a setup and a solid trading plan.  I'm really happy for Peter, as he's been with us for many years and much deserves the success and acknowledgement: a 90% Consistency Score is superb!

Typing a gazillion words a day, in our trading group and Bluesky posts plus many many emails etc. has necessitated a lot of abbreviations.  The fine peeps in our trading group know all of these but I thought I should summarise the key ones here, for my Bluesky followers: -

AC - Acceleration Correction
ACH – Anything Can Happen
ADR – Average Daily Range. I tend to use a 5-day average to identify what price magnets are in reach for the day. ADR T/B – top/bottom
ATH – All Time High
ATM – Advanced Trade Manager
Be/Bu – Bearish / Bullish
CIM – Correction Inside Momentum
DODC - Day Open Day Close, usually refers to the gap between them
DR/UR - Downside/Upside Rejection: a relatively large lower/upper wick. I don’t like the term ‘Pin Bars’ very much, preferring to call it what it is.
EOD - End of Day
eWH – eWavesHarmonics
FE – Fib’ Expansion (Fib Ext for Extension)
FTGs – Friendly Trading Gods, if the PA is good, or replace the ‘Friendly’ with a common expletive also beginning with F, if the PA is bad. The Trading Gods are the mythical movers of price.
FO - Frankfurt Open (can refer to the time or opening price)
FVG – Fair Value Gap.
Gap Abbreviations: KS - Kick Start; EX - exhaustion; MO - Momentum; ME - Measuring.
GFE – Golden Fib’ Expansion: where, for example, an ABC projection aligns with a Fib’ retrace of 50 or 61.8%. We use the ABC123 indi (an add-on for eWH) to automatically plot the corrective/impulsive Fib’ projections.
GZ - Golden Zone: the 50 / 62% retracement area
​IB - Inside Bar
LO - London Open (can refer to the time or opening price)
MF – Money Flow
Mo Bar – Momentum Bar, one that is much bigger than the others with little or no wicks. I don’t much care for Japanese Candlestick names.
MM - Measured/Mirror Move
MTLBT – Manual Trend Line Break & Test (as opposed to the regular TLB/TLBT with the trend line drawn by eWH)
NEO- New York Equities / NYSE Open (can refer to the time or opening price)
NYO- New York Open - an hour before NYSE opens (can refer to the time or opening price)
OB - Outside Bar
OT – the strange bloke in the White House, at the time this post was created. I’m not a fan so you can make of the ‘OT’ meaning what you will.  OTonomics is a made up word for his economic policies, particularly with regard to tariffs. Facepalm!
​PRZ - Potential Reversal Zone
SD – Supply/Demand
SDF – Supply/Demand Flip
SR – Support/Resistance
TCSWTGB - Tightly Coiled Spring Waiting To Go Boing! When PA is stuck in a tight range for a long time.
Tea Leaves – predicting where price will go to. TETLEYS is where the tea leaves were spot on – good tea leaves
TLB – Trend Line Break (eWH creates the trend line for W4s)
TLBT – Trend Line Break and Test
TLMS – They Love My Stops. TLMS is an indi that I wrote to help traders look for logical places for stop loss management, using some basic Elliott Wave rules. It developed into more than that, with the ability to project where Waves 3 & 5 might get to and can be integrated into ATM for automatic stop loss management..
TZ1/TZ2 – target zones generated by eWavesHarmonics. They work time and time again but not 100% of the time, of course.
VLPR - Very Low Pip/Point Risk. These are the trades that we seek for the best R:R
​WOWC - Week Open Week Close, usually refers to the gap between them

Just about all of the above are covered in the free trading course.

Update: there is a later blog post about AI reviewing the Bluesky pre-session reviews, that might be of interest